BELIEVE IT

The only way the Republicans can return one of their own to the White House this November is the way they did it last time — cheating and violence.

They are planning to keep black voters from the polls and have even been caught sending e-mail containing their plans, the BBC reports.

In West Palm Beach, Fla., a Bush supporter was charged with imprisoning and threatening his girlfriend, who was considering voting for Kerry. "I kill you," he said, according to the arrest report. "You want (to) live to see the election?"

Sixty-five miles west in Vero Beach, Fla., AP reports, "anti-John Kerry demonstrator [Michael Garone, 52] was charged with felony aggravated assault with a gun for allegedly pointing a weapon at the head of a Kerry supporter."

More bad news for the Bush camp:

AP writes: The FBI has begun investigating whether the Pentagon improperly awarded no-bid contracts to Halliburton Co., seeking an interview with a top Army contracting officer and collecting documents from several government offices.

And trouble in New Hampshire: "In a Republican state that has never refused a governor of either party a second term, Democrat John Lynch is running a surprisingly strong campaign against freshman Republican Gov. Craig Benson. Polls show the race about even."

A piece by Salon reader Kevin Criss, who argues that black voter opinion is lacking from major polls, makes the following points and predictions:

First, let me just say prepare for the death of polls, as that will be the dominant story coming out of election night. First blacks. I saw Ann Coulter on some show where she was literally speaking for black America. Being that she is an aging white chick with poorly dyed roots, she obviously got it wrong. Those polls saying how Bush will get 16 to 18 percent of the black vote are just wrong. To quote ODB, "Nigga please." ...

Kerry wins Arizona: This state has the most college students per capita. Kerry will win Flagstaff, Tucson and Tempe. Throw in Native Americans, Latins, and even moderate Republicans who will vote Democratic (they got the Democratic governor elected), and oh I forgot all the Independents, Kerry will win this state.

Kerry wins Nevada: This state simply comes down to Vegas. Kerry will win Vegas by a big enough margin to cancel out the rest of the state.

Kerry win Missouri: What people either don't realize or just don't give a fuck to report is that the black mobilization efforts in St. Louis and Kansas City are second to none, literally. Florida got the attention last time, but people seem to have forgotten that blacks there were denied the right to vote at many polling places that were closed on them. Throw in college towns, Kerry wins.

Kerry wins Minnesota: I can't believe people actually think this state is close. What people tend to forget is that voters here can register as you vote. Throw in Ventura's endorsement and the young'ns.

Kerry wins Colorado: Sometimes people just got to listen to the streets. I have family and friends in Colorado, and what they tell me is that "Fahrenheit 9/11" has had a huge impact there, so much so they are still talking about it, and as people watched it they were changed by it. How can a tradtional red state have a rich ass Senate candidate getting his ass kicked and polls showing Bush/Kerry within the margin. Kerry wins.

Kerry wins Texas: PSYCH! But just as people are saying Kerry wins CA, NY, and NJ by closer margins, so does Bush take his own state. I'll go out on a margin and say Bush gets no more than 60 percent in his own state. Holla.

Believe it.

[Thanks to P.O., C.M. and E.F. for these contributions.]